Brant has acquired the schedules for The Big Week. Here are the schedules for AACS and SCQANIT. Who are these teams represented by the state letters? Look here. Now that we have them, I felt it would be appropriate timing to discuss what I think of each of these tournaments individually and collectively.
First, SCQANIT is a huge deal. Now that we are sure Pleasant View is coming, we know that if they win, it will be another feather in their cap. If they lose, a team will earn immediate respect. I think they have to be the favorites, but I hope that they are not planning to leave at 8 PM, arrive in Greenville at 4 AM. If they do, they are still the favorites, but I think the field has caught a serious break.
Faith MI is a clear #2 at this tournament in my mind and as this is their biggest event of the year, they have a tad more motivation than Pleasant View or any other AACS schools. As the event is PreBracketed, it forces teams to quiz really good teams right away. Before lunch, you go down to only three undefeated teams. To be truthful, I think this hurts Pleasant View a little bit. They are unquestionably the best team. And if they are starting tired, they can’t ease into competition as they would at AACS. They are forced to quiz against the best from the very get-go.
As Brant pointed out, this is Faith (SC)’s tournament historically. I don’t know if a count has been kept, but I would guess that they have won more than anybody. This year, the two Bryson quizzers will be at AACS with their school, so they will be a little closer to the group that knows another quiz is coming. Valley, Woodside, and Capitol City will be there. As this is a year where we start later in April and it starts at 9, I think the time change will not be as big of a factor.
I personally predict the final 6 to be Pleasant View, Faith (MI), Faith (SC), Woodside, Capitol City, and Old Paths. I think Pleasant View will win (going out on a limb here). Will they win AACS also? Well, I think AACS is where they will suffer more.
First of all, AACS is different than every other tournament we attend in terms of question style. A team so dominant in one style can’t help but be less than 100% when adapting to a new style. Further, when weary from travelling, it is possible for adrenaline to kick in. However, adrenaline doesn’t usually last two days and it will wear off. There is a reason that very few teams win both SCQANIT and AACS. Remember, when IL won all those years, they had not attended SCQANIT. MI won when they did not attend. GA won when they lost so early, they may as well not have attended. Finally, Pleasant View’s biggest challenger (FBCCF) will be in this position at AACS.
While Faith (SC) will not be there, their two best quizzers will be. SC also has the shortest distance to travel and will likely be the least weary. Faith (MI) still doesn’t attend AACS, but NY has traditionally been strongest at this tournament. The style allows the best teams to not meet up until the end, and I think this makes for a more exciting afternoon (though, arguably, a weaker morning). Sometimes a bad draw can hurt a team and eliminate them early.
Historically, MO and IL have done very well at AACS. NJ is always a wild card there, as I did not see them in the SCQANIT bracket. So, who will make it to the second day? Yes, the biggest difference between AACS and other events, though, is the fact that fatigue plays no discernable role in picking the champions. It may effect who gets to the second day, but it does not effect who wins a quiz two days later. So who will make it to the second day, where afterward we take a huge pause and will then undoubtedly write our opinions?
Well, contrary to many, I think KY will take a loss on Tuesday. However, I don’t think they will lose twice. FL will survive, IMO. I think NY will be in the Thursday mix. Will there be a 4th team? I’m not sure, but if there is, I believe it will be a team that comes from relative nowhere. A team we have seen this year, but maybe has been disappointing. A team that does poorly all the way through Monday. Then they catch fire and make it to Thursday.
Now, who will win AACS and what effect will that have on our outlook to the year at large? I have to start by saying that I do not believe Pleasant View can drop from their current #1 perch if they win either tournament and do reasonably well at the other. Two losses before chapel at AACS with a SCQANIT win, for example, could. Even if KY wins neither, they still will be among the top for the year.
FL, in skipping SCQANIT, has really damaged their chances for a #1 finish. Of course, winning AACS is often its own reward. But I just can’t see plaving them #1 if KY wins SCQANIT. Even if FL wins AACS, KY would have finished better in two tournaments vs. one for FL. And even though, FL’s win was the latest, they also would lose the total number of tournaments won. Faith (SC) is in the weird position that they could help their position while not even being at AACS. As part of their team is the strength of an AACS team. Faith (MI) would have to convincingly beat Pleasant View to even their tournament defeats at 1-1 and then hope KY hurts their case with a relatively weak AACS.
As for what I think of the AACS finals, let’s wait until Wednesday, when you can see how bad my picks were and let me regroup then.